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In this paper, we introduce Bodhi, the next generation blockchain based platform that decentralizes
the prediction market. Bodhi leverages the advantages of the state-of-the-art decentralized prediction
markets by integrating third-party Oracles and voting based decentralized Oracles via its Oracle ab-
straction layer. We intend to develop a novel replaceable Oracle framework where the prediction market
is more effective and autonomous. Bodhi will be deployed on Qtum at the initial launch.
Bodhi, Prediction Market, Smart Contract, Qtum, Ethereum
Humanity has developed strong interests towards understanding history and predicting the
future. What will the weather be like tomorrow? Which soccer team will win the UEFA European
Championship later this year? Is Apple stock going below 100 USD per share on the ﬁrst weekday
of next year? People attempt to predict the results of simple yet non-trivial questions. The desire
to predict what happens next has ...
redistributed upon the realization of outcomes of an event in which all parties participated.
The fortune redistribution follows a simple yet powerful rule, that the fortune ﬂows from less
skillful and inaccurate participants to more skillful and accurate participants. In order to succeed
in the prediction, participants aggressively gather information, and apply mathematical modeling
to maximize the chance of prediction accurately. Statistically, the price associated with each
outcome has high positive correlation with each outcome. Meanwhile, the accuracy of the
prediction is largely determined by the number of participants. Starting from the very beginning of
information revolution, people has been devoted to making online prediction markets to minimize
the onboarding barrier for participating in prediction. However, centralized online products have
yet to earn people’s trust while excessive regulation and legal restrictions also greatly limits the
development of the prediction market.
With the delu...
Augur  is a blockchain based decentralized prediction market. A user can create a prediction
event using Ethereum’s  smart contract, followed by other users’ predicting and pricing the
probability of each outcome through native tokens. When the event eventually happens, Augur
REP holders report to Augur the right prediction result. The REP holders are the building
blocks of Augur platform, where these holders maintain the platform and constitute the ar-
bitration mechanism. However, as the Augur platform scales, a fully decentralized arbitration
mechanism becomes less efﬁcient. When a large group of prediction events have been created,
it is increasingly challenging for REP holders to vote for all events. REP holders might also
have different domain expertise and have been exposed to events at different comfort levels.
The matchmaking process between an event and event-speciﬁc expertise has yet to be improved.
Moreover, problems such as high time-cost...
the decision making process. Different from Gnosis’ centralized Oracle solution, Bodhi enables
BOT holders to take over the voting process and make the ﬁnal decision of a prediction event
in the event of Oracle failure.
Bodhi, the next generation blockchain based prediction market, leverages the advantages of
the state-of-the-art decentralized prediction markets by integrating third-party Oracles and voting
based decentralized Oracles via its Oracle abstraction layer. We introduce a novel replaceable
Oracle framework so that the prediction market is more effective and autonomous.
Bodhi will ﬁrst be deployed on the Qtum . As more users around the world are accessing
the Internet from mobile devices rather than from desktop computers, mobile computing will
be increasingly important to prediction markets. Qtum combines the advantages of Bitcoin and
Ethereum to provide better user experience on mobile devices. Event forecast is very time-
3000000 2017-01-16 00:38:33 14.86
3500000 2017-04-11 18:09:34 15.27
4000000 2017-08-15 18:20:24 30.01
4500000 2018-11-03 05:55:48 136.71
5000000 2025-10-02 11:47:30 835.81
5500000 2128-03-20 09:14:16 17183.83
6000000 5189-09-26 20:57:59 520901.19
HE EFFECTIVENESS OF
Bodhi uses third-party Oracle to automatically judge prediction results to guarantee the efﬁ-
ciency of the decision-making process. BOT holders can take over the voting process and make
the ﬁnal decision for a prediction event if Oracle fails. Algorithm 1 shows how Bodhi works.
As you can see, Bodhi’s Oracle is replaceable. If consensus cannot be obtained through
arbitration, users can continue to make deposits to request the next iteration of arbitration. As
the number of rounds increases, more token deposits get accumulated and BOT holders are
Announcing the Bodhi prediction market
Deploy Bodhi prediction market beta version onto Qtum testnet
Deploy Bodhi prediction market MVP version onto Qtum main network
Deploy Bodhi prediction market production version onto Qtum main network
Deploy Bodhi prediction market optimization version onto Qtum main network